Solar activity was at moderate levels. New Region 1476 (N09E67) produced several C-class flares along with an M1/Sn at 05/1329Z. The regions proximity to the limb makes spot classification difficult, however, it is currently considered a Dko-beta type group. Region 1469 (S26W77) continues to produce low level C-class activity as it rotates around the west limb. A model run was completed after the forecast was issued yesterday to include the CME observed off the southwest limb yesterday. It was determined that the CME has a slight Earth-directed component. A second CME, first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 05/0309Z, appeared to be associated with a C1 flare from Region 1469 observed at 04/2350Z. Although both CMEs have a weak Earth-directed component, neither are expected to cause significant geomagnetic activity. A third CME associated with a C2/Sf flare from Region 1470 (S15W31) observed at 05/0639Z, first became visible in SDO AIA imagery at approximately 05/0600Z. Due to the source location, it is probable that the CME is Earth-directed and a model run is currently in progress to determine geoeffectiveness.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days (06-08 May).

The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (06 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible on days two and three (07-08 May) due to weak effects from the CMEs observed on 04 May.

  Observed       05 May 116
  Predicted   06 May-08 May  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        05 May 112

  Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 May  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  006/005-007/007-007/007