Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 April 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares occurred. A filament erupted from the northwest quadrant during approximately 07/1825 - 1900Z. The eruption was associated with a partial-halo CME with an estimated plane of sky speed of 690 km/s. Most of the CME mass appeared to be directed southwestward of Earth and is not expected to be significantly geoeffective. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low during days 1 - 3 (09 - 11 April) with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels on day 1 (09 April) with a chance for active levels due to a CME passage that is expected to begin early in the day. There will also be a chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes on day 1. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 April).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Apr 093
  Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        08 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  003/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Apr  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  013/015-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm35%10%25%
Major-severe storm30%05%15%

All times in UTC

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