Viewing archive of Monday, 9 April 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours with two C-class events observed. Region 1450 (N15W90) produced a C2 event at 0122Z. Around the vicinity of plage Region 1451 (N17W73), a C3 x-ray event was observed at 1244Z. Associated with this event were both a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated plane of sky velocity of 767 km/s and a west-limb CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 1325Z. Initial analysis indicates the CME, associated with this event, is non-Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next three days (10 - 12 April) as Regions 1452 (N18W51) and 1451 continue to weaken and rotate off the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 April) and at quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11-12 April), as possible CME effects and the arrival of elevated solar wind from a favorable positioned coronal hole arrive.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 095
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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