Viewing archive of Friday, 1 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. C-class flares were observed
from both Region 1493 (N14E49) and newly numbered Region 1498
(N07E69). The largest flare was a C2/1F at 01/1710Z from Region
1498, a Cso type group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region
1493 was the largest region on the disk, occupying 170 millionths
and classified as a Dho type group with a beta magnetic
configuration. New Regions 1496 (N16E59) and 1497 (S22E34) were
also numbered yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three
days (02-04 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. A solar
sector boundary change, from positive to negative, was observed at
the ACE spacecraft between 01/01Z and 03Z. Solar wind speed was
around 350 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin at quiet levels on day 1 (2 June). An increase to
unsettled to active levels is expected on days 2 and 3 (3-4 June)
with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The
coronal hole high speed stream will also bring a slight chance for
isolated minor storm conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 129 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 004/005-009/010-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 30% | 50% |
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