Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
occurred. A filament erupted from the northwest quadrant during
approximately 07/1825 - 1900Z. The eruption was associated with a
partial-halo CME with an estimated plane of sky speed of 690 km/s.
Most of the CME mass appeared to be directed southwestward of Earth
and is not expected to be significantly geoeffective. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (09 - 11 April) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels on day 1 (09 April) with a chance
for active levels due to a CME passage that is expected to begin
early in the day. There will also be a chance for minor storm levels
at high latitudes on day 1. Field activity is expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 April).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 093 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 003/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 013/015-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 05% | 15% |
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