Viewing archive of Monday, 26 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. Region 1442
(N12W01) produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/0642Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 1429 (N19, L=295) is
expected to return late on day 2 (28 March), further increasing the
possibility of an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 27 March, increasing to unsettled to
active conditions on 28 and 29 March due to a solar sector boundary
followed by a negative polarity coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 40% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 102 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 006/005-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 45% | 30% |
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