Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. Region 1444
(N21W17) produced a C5/1f flare at 27/0308Z. Region 1442 (N12W13)
produced a C2 flare at 26/2338Z and a C1/Sf flare at 27/0430Z. SOHO
LASCO observed a full asymmetric halo CME at 26/2312Z which was
associated with Type II & Type IV radio sweeps. This CME was
determined to be a backsided event and should not be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare. Old Region 1429 (N19,
L=299) is expected to return to the solar disk midday on 29 March,
which should increase M-class flare probabilities. New Region 1447
(S25W55) was numbered today and is a small C-type spot group.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE data
indicate a solar sector boundary crossing during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 28 March to 29
March, due to a favorably positioned negative polarity coronal hole.
Quiet levels are expected on the third day (30 March).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 106 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 110/120/120 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 013/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 05% |
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