Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 March 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C3/1n flare was observed from Region 1444 (N19E11) at 25/0028Z. This was followed by dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery north of Region 1444 at 25/0034Z. At 25/0448Z, a CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery emerging from the northeast limb . A C2 flare occurred at 25/0157Z from Region 1445 (S24E52). Material was seen lifting off the southeast limb near Region 1445 at 25/0138Z in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. At 25/0512Z, a CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery emerging from the southeast limb. Neither CME is expected to be particularly geoeffective. Region 1445 grew substantially over the past 24 hours and was classified as an Fho type group with beta magnetic characteristics. New Region 1446 (N23W27) was numbered today and classified as a small Bxo type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 1429 (N19, L=295) is expected to return late on Day 3 (28 March), further increasing the possibility of an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, decreased over the past 24 hours and ended the period around 370 km/s. Bz was generally neutral.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for Days 1 and 2 (26-27 March), increasing to unsettled to active conditions on Day 3 (28 March) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M35%35%45%
Class X05%05%10%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 101
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  006/005-006/005-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%35%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%45%

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