Viewing archive of Friday, 24 February 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. An asymmetrical, halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/0346Z. The associated event was a filament eruption centered near N32E38 which was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 24/0225Z. New Region 1424 (N09E68) rotated on the East limb and was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (25 - 27 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind speeds at the ACE spacecraft ranged from approximately 400 - 460 km/s while the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (25 - 26 February). A glancing blow from todays CME is expected to become geoeffective early on day 3 (27 February) causing unsettled to active periods with isolated minor storm periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 109
  Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  003/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  004/005-004/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm10%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%

All times in UTC

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