Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 February 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1422 (N15W52) showed decay in its trailing spots. A new region appeared on the NE limb and was numbered Region 1423 (N18E70). Two CMEs were observed overnight; the first off the North limb, observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at approximately 23/0148Z and the second beginning at 23/0824Z off the NW limb. The second CME was associated with a filament eruption on the NW limb first seen in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 23/0746Z. None of the CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for a C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft decreased from approximately 530 km/s to 440 km/s while the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions for the forecast period (24 - 26 February).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Feb 103
  Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        23 Feb 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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