Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1422 (N15W52)
showed decay in its trailing spots. A new region appeared on the NE
limb and was numbered Region 1423 (N18E70). Two CMEs were observed
overnight; the first off the North limb, observed in LASCO C2
imagery beginning at approximately 23/0148Z and the second beginning
at 23/0824Z off the NW limb. The second CME was associated with a
filament eruption on the NW limb first seen in SDO/AIA 193 imagery
at 23/0746Z. None of the CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for a C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft decreased from approximately 530 km/s to 440 km/s while
the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary
much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions for the forecast
period (24 - 26 February).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 103 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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