Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 1410 (N18E48) produced a C1 flare at 28/1534Z. New Region 1411 (S26E09) was numbered today and is classified as an Axx-alpha type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (29-31 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 27/1900Z and reached a max of 12 pfu at 27/2140Z, was still in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/1905Z and reached a peak of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z, was also still in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (29 January) as effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods are expected on day two (30 January) due to effects from the CME associated with the X1 flare observed on 27 January. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (31 January) due to residual CME effects. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by 29/0000Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through day one (29 January) and then gradually decrease below threshold by the end of day two (30 January).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton99%70%20%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 115
  Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-014/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%40%15%
Minor storm01%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%20%
Minor storm05%30%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

All times in UTC

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