Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 1410 (N18E48)
produced a C1 flare at 28/1534Z. New Region 1411 (S26E09) was
numbered today and is classified as an Axx-alpha type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (29-31 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The
greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 27/1900Z and reached
a max of 12 pfu at 27/2140Z, was still in progress at the time of
this writing. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
27/1905Z and reached a peak of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z, was also still
in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (29 January) as effects from
the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods are expected on day two (30 January)
due to effects from the CME associated with the X1 flare observed on
27 January. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three
(31 January) due to residual CME effects. The greater than 100 MeV
proton event is expected to end by 29/0000Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue through day one (29 January)
and then gradually decrease below threshold by the end of day two
(30 January).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 70% | 20% |
| PCAF | In Progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 115 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 005/005-014/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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