Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low. One C3/Sf flare was observed at 01/0734Z from Region 1389 (S22E17). This region diminished in spot count and magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours. The remaining regions were stable. The 10cm solar flux was estimated.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days (01-03 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Hourly averages of solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft were about 360 km/s while Bz was near -2 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet with a slight chance for unsettled conditions for the next three days (02-04 January).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jan 130
  Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        01 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jan  000/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

All times in UTC

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