Viewing archive of Monday, 2 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares occurred. New Region 1391 (N13E81) was numbered today as it rotated around the East limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next 3 days (3-5 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for day 1 (3 January). Activity is forecast to increase to mostly unsettled conditions with possible active periods on day 2 (4 January) with an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC). Conditions should return to mostly quiet on day 3 (5 January).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 135
  Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  000/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  006/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%15%05%

All times in UTC

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