Viewing archive of Monday, 2 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
occurred. New Region 1391 (N13E81) was numbered today as it rotated
around the East limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next 3
days (3-5 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day 1 (3 January). Activity is
forecast to increase to mostly unsettled conditions with possible
active periods on day 2 (4 January) with an anticipated solar sector
boundary crossing (SSBC). Conditions should return to mostly quiet
on day 3 (5 January).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 135 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 000/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 006/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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