Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (4-6 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions across
all latitudes. The activity was the result of sporadic polarity
shifts accompanied by a period of extended southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled days 1-2 (4-5 January) as
fluctuating polarity is expected to continue prior to a forecasted
solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) on day 2. On day 3 (6
January), the onset of a coronal high speed steam (CH HSS) is
expected to produce unsettled and active conditions with a minor
storm possible at onset.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 135 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 007/008-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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