Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1386 (S17W87) and 1392
(N20W04) each produced C1 x-ray flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (5-7 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (5 January). Conditions are expected
to increase on day 2 (6 January), with unsettled conditions possible
associated with a forecasted solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC).
On day 3 (7 January), the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) is expected to produce unsettled and active conditions,
with a possible minor storm at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 136 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 000/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 004/005-007/008-013/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 40% |
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