Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (01-03 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled conditions from
30/21Z until 31/00Z, before decreasing to quiet levels for the
remainder of the day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which
began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu on 28/0205Z,
dropped below the 10 pfu threshold and ended at 31/0635Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (01-02 February), and
quiet to unsettled on day 3 (03 February) due to anticipated CH HSS
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 117 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 004/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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