Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N07W79) produced a
C1 x-ray flare at 01/0441Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (02-04 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (02 February). Activity will increase
to quiet to unsettled on days 2-3 (03-04 February) as the result of
anticipated CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 118 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 000/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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