Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (03-05 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (03 February) due to CH
HSS effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on days
2 and 3 (04-05 February).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 118 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 008/008-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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