Viewing archive of Friday, 24 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. An asymmetrical, halo CME
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/0346Z. The
associated event was a filament eruption centered near N32E38 which
was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 24/0225Z. New
Region 1424 (N09E68) rotated on the East limb and was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (25 -
27 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind speeds at the ACE
spacecraft ranged from approximately 400 - 460 km/s while the Bz
component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary much
beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (25 - 26 February). A
glancing blow from todays CME is expected to become geoeffective
early on day 3 (27 February) causing unsettled to active periods
with isolated minor storm periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 109 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 004/005-004/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
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