Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 26 2220 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. A long duration C1 flare was observed at 26/0710Z in
conjunction with an eruptive filament channel near Region 1353
(N08W49). A full halo CME, first observed in C2 imagery at 26/0712Z,
was also associated with this event. The other regions on the disk
remained mostly stable and quiet throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events, for the next
three days (27-29 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
At around 26/0840Z, signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated
elevated levels of greater than 10 MeV protons. This increase was
associated with the eruptive filament channel, CME, and C1 flare
mentioned earlier. A greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit began at 26/1125Z. Max flux for this event,
thus far, was 54 pfu at 26/2055Z. This proton event was still in
progress when this report was issued.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
November). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm conditions is expected on days two and three (28-29
November). These elevated conditions are the result of the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on day two, and the arrival of todays full halo CME late on
day two or early on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 90% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 133 Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 006/008-011/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 39% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 03% | 17% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 01% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 11% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 27% | 26% |
| Major-severe storm | 08% | 58% | 61% |
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