Viewing archive of Friday, 23 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest of the three
C-class flares observed during the period was a C3 from Region 1376
(N16W84) as it prepared to rotate off the visible disk. Rotating
onto the disk was new Region 1386 (S16E72), an Hsx type group with
alpha magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were
magnetically simple and quiescent.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days
(24-26 December).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 138 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 000/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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