Viewing archive of Friday, 25 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Several small coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed but
none appear to have any Earth directed components. Two new regions
were numbered today, Region 1360 (N17E17) and Region 1361 (N19E59).
There are over 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, however most
have remained stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (26 - 28 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next two days (26
- 27 November). An increase to quiet to unsettled with a chance for
active levels is expected on day three (28 November), as a coronal
hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 135 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 004/007-006/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 04% | 07% | 21% |
| Minor storm | 00% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 17% | 18% |
| Minor storm | 14% | 20% | 33% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 32% |
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