Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest event of the period was a C1 flare from Region
1356 (N15E16). A new sunspot group was numbered early in the period
in the northwest quadrant, Region 1359 (N16W52). A CME was observed
off the west limb in LASCO C2 imagery at 24/0125Z, but after careful
analysis, there appears to be no Earth directed components.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (25-27 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels with an
isolated period at minor storm levels observed at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(25-27 November).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 137 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 005/005-005/007-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 04% | 07% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 00% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 16% | 15% | 17% |
| Minor storm | 17% | 14% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 07% | 05% | 10% |
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