Viewing archive of Friday, 4 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1152 (S18W01)
produced a few B-class x-ray flares during the period. Newly
numbered Region 1153 (N1518) remained stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for a C-class x-ray event for
the next 3 days (5-7 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with an isolated
unsettled period between 04/03Z-04/06Z and an active period between
04/18Z and 04/21Z. A sudden impulse of 8 nT was observed at 04/0236Z
in association with a reverse shock behind the slow moving CME from
30 January. Solar wind speeds reached near 500 km/s and Bz was
sustained between -15 and -20 nT between 04/18Z and 04/21Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated
minor storm early, then mostly quiet to unsettled for the second
half of day 1 (5 February). Conditions are forecast to be
predominately quiet on days 2 and 3 (6-7 February) as coronal hole
effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 082 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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