Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1150 (S22W13)
decayed throughout the period. New Region 1152 (S18E11) was numbered
today after producing a B2 x-ray event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days
(4-6 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was very low throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly unsettled to active with the chance for a
minor storm on day 1 (4 February) due to coronal hole effects in
conjunction with the anticipated arrival of the CME from 30 January.
Conditions are forecast to be mostly unsettled on day 2 (5 February)
before returning to mostly quiet on day 3 (6 February) when coronal
hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 080 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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