Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was
visible on LASCO C3 starting at 01/2330Z, but appears to be backside
through analysis of the STEREO coronagraphs.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (3 February) until the
anticipated mid-day arrival of the CME from 30 January, when a minor
storm is likely. Conditions for days 2-3 (4-5 February) are forecast
to begin at mostly unsettled to active and then decrease to
primarily quiet with a few isolated unsettled periods as the coronal
hole effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 079 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 015/015-010/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 60% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
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