Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days
(2-4 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled until a period of
active conditions occurred at mid latitudes at 01/18Z associated
with the onset of recurrent coronal hole effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for a minor storm
on day 1 (2 February) due to coronal hole effects along with
intermittent periods of Bz south. On day 2 (3 February), unsettled
to active conditions are forecast until the anticipated mid-day
arrival of the CME from 30 January, when an isolated minor storm
will become likely. Conditions on day 3 (4 February) are expected to
be mostly unsettled to active as coronal hole effects begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 080 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 012/012-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 50% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 60% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
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