Viewing archive of Monday, 28 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 1164 (N26E33) produced a C2/Sf flare associated with a Type
II Sweep and an M1 event at 28/1252Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (01-03 March). A chance for M-class activity
exists from Region 1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected for the next three days (01-03 March) due to the
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 096 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 095/095/098 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 008/008-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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