Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1164 (N25W06) produced
a C5/1N flare at 03/1420Z and was classified as an Ekc type group
with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1167 (N14E31) was
numbered today and classified as a Bxo type group with Beta magnetic
characteristics. The remaining regions were quiescent. An
earth-directed CME was observed in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 03/0509Z
and in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 03/0636Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (04-06 March) with a chance for an
M-class event from Region 1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm
conditons. The storms were confined to high latitudes while middle
latitudes experienced quiet to active levels. The disturbed
conditions were the result of the continued influence of the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that became geoeffective
earlier in the week. Solar wind values at the ACE spacecraft ranged
between 560 to 660 km/s during the period. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly southward from
03/05Z to 03/17Z, reaching -7 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to slowly return to quiet conditions during the forecast
period (04-06 March). Unsettled to active conditions are expected
on days 1 and 2 (04-05 March) with a slight chance for major storm
levels at high latitudes. Day 3 (06 March) will see a return to
predominantly quiet conditions as the coronal hole high speed stream
wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 121 Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 012/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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