Viewing archive of Friday, 28 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. A R1 Radio blackout was observed in association with a M1
flare at 28/0103Z from Region 1149 (N17, L = 349). A CME observed in
LASCO C2 imagery at 28/0206Z and a Type II radio sweep, observed at
28/0101Z with an estimated velocity of 732 km/s, were both
associated with this event. Two new regions were numbered today,
Region 1150 (S22E62) and Region 1151 (N09W60).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (29-31 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
A proton enhancement was observed by the GOES 13 spacecraft reaching
a max of 2.8 pfu at 28/1625Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29-31
January).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 081 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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