Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1150 (S22E50) has remained stable while producing
several B-class events. Region 1151 (N11W71) decayed to spotless
plage late in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next
three days (30 January - 01 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next two days
(30-31 January). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected late on day
three (01 February) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream
moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 081 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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