Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1149 (N16W90)
produced two C1 flares at 27/1201Z and 27/2003Z. A Type II radio
sweep was observed at 27/1208Z, with an estimated velocity of 901
km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels on day one (28 January). There remains a
slight chance for a C-class flare as Region 1149 rotates off the
limb. Activity is expected to be very low on days two and three
(29-30 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels, with isolated unsettled
periods at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(28-30 January).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 081 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 079/078/078 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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