Viewing archive of Friday, 31 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1138
(N12W70) produced a C1 flare at 31/0425Z associated with a Type II
radio sweep (estimated shock velocity 875 km/s) and a
non-Earth-directed CME. New Region 1140 (N32E67) produced a B9 flare
at 31/1934Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (01 - 03 January) with a chance for
isolated C-class flares from Region 1140.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (01 - 03 January).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 091 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 092/090/088 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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