Viewing archive of Friday, 27 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 27 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1100 (S20W91)
produced several small B-class x-ray events before rotating off the
west limb. Region 1101 (N12E34) remains magnetically stable and
quiet while growing in size. A CME associated with a lifted
filament was visible on SOHO LASCO leaving the southwest limb around
27/0900Z. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low for the next 3 days (28-30 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and active conditions over
the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous obit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet with a chance for an isolated period of
unsettled to active for the next 3 days (28-30 August).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 073 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 073/073/075 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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