Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 26 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1101 (N13E48) produced two low level B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low for the next 3 days (27-29 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and active conditions
during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions on day 1 (27 August), returning to mostly quiet
conditions on days 2 and 3 (28-29 August).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 073 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 015/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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