Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 22 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. There were
numerous B-class events, most of which were produced by Region 1109
(N22E67). Region 1109 is a Dko group with a beta magnetic
configuration and has increased in size over the last 24 hours.
Region 1108 (S30W09) is now an Hhx alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for
the next three days (23-25 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on days one and two (23-24
September) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Day
three (25 September) is expected to be mostly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 085 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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