Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 31 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N13E35)
produced several B-class flares, the largest a B7 at 31/1909Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low to low, with a chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days
(01-03 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (01-03 August).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 083 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 005/007-005/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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