Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 01 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1092
(N13E21) produced a long-duration C3/Sf flare at 01/0826Z. The flare
was associated with a Type IV radio sweep, an 890 sfu Tenflare, and
an Earth-directed full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). A
disappearing filament (DSF) occurred during 01/0750 - 0811Z,
centered near N37W32 and time coincident with the C3 flare. The DSF
was associated with an Earth-directed partial-halo CME. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1092.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during most of day 1 (02 August). An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected late on day 1 due
to the arrival of the full-halo CME observed on 01 August. Activity
is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm levels on day 2 (03 August) as CME effects persist.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a
chance for active levels on day 3 (04 August) as CME effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 080 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 080/080/082 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 007/008-018/018-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
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