Viewing archive of Monday, 2 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 02 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Two B-class flares were
observed, one of which was produced by Region 1092 (N16E10). Region
1092 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cho group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 August)
due to the arrival of the first of two CMEs observed on 01 August
(this CME was associated with the long-duration C3/Sf flare at
01/0826Z). Activity is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels with a slight chance for major storm on days 2 - 3 (04 - 05
August) due to the arrival of the second slower CME observed on 01
August (associated with a large filament disappearance).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 079 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 080/082/084 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 012/012-018/022-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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