Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A solar
sector boundary crossing from negative (toward) to positive (away)
was evident in ACE SWEPAM signatures at about 11/0130Z. Shortly
afterwards, solar wind velocity gradually increased from about 350
km/s to near 400 km/s by 0600Z, while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field turned southward (-5 nT). These
signatures were consistent with a co-rotating interaction region in
advance of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, all three days of the forecast period (12 - 14 May). This
activity is due to a series of coronal hole high speed wind streams
that are located in both solar hemispheres.
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 074 Predicted 12 May-14 May 074/073/073 90 Day Mean 11 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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