Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 12 2146 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Two low level B-class flares were observed. The visible
disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind data from ACE indicate the continuation of
a high speed solar wind stream with a peak velocity of 500 km/s at
12/0740 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for the next two days (13-14 May). This elevated activity is
due to a series of coronal hole high-speed streams moving into
geoeffective positions. On day three (15 May), quiet levels are
expected as the effects of these high speed solar wind streams
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 071 Predicted 13 May-15 May 071/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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