Viewing archive of Monday, 10 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 10 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless. Only low-level B-class activity was noted, all from
Region 1069 as it rotated off the disk at N41.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels, with
isolated active periods, all three days of the forecast period (11 -
13 May). The anticipated increase in activity levels is due to a
series of coronal hole high speed wind streams, located in both
solar hemispheres, that will become geoeffective through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 074 Predicted 11 May-13 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 10 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 008/008-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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