Viewing archive of Monday, 3 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 03 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only weak B-class activity was observed. All regions appear stable. New Region 1068 (S19E76) was numbered during the period. LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving CME lifting off the SW limb at 02/2108Z. The CME is not expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1067 (N23E38).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels at all latitudes, while high latitudes observed brief periods of major storm conditions early in the period. Wind velocities remained high during the period averaging about 675 km/s and peaking near 750 km/s between 03/1200-1400Z. This activity is a result of a large, recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, for days one and two (04 - 05 May). This activity is due to the persistence of the coronal hole high speed wind stream. By day three (06 May), conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled as the coronal hole high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 080
  Predicted   04 May-06 May  082/084/086
  90 Day Mean        03 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  018/039
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  020/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  020/028-015/022-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%30%10%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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