Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 02 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only weak B-class activity was observed. Three new regions were numbered during the period. Regions 1065 (S32W16) and 1066 (S27E16) formed on the disk as single, unipolar spot groups. Region 1067 (N23E56) rotated on the disk as a bi-polar spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity is likely from Region 1067.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the period. Activity was quiet through about 1100Z when levels increased to active to minor storming at middle latitudes, with major storm periods observed at high latitudes. At about 0900Z, observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated increases in temperature, density and wind velocity, while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed strong negative incursions to -20 nT. Wind speeds gradually increased from about 375 km/s to near 700 km/s by 1645Z. Thereafter, wind speeds leveled out to about 650 km/s, and remained so through the balance of the period. These signatures were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm periods at middle latitudes for days one and two (03 - 04 May). During the same period, high latitudes should expect similar conditions with isolated major storm periods. This activity is due to a geoeffective, recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream. By day three (05 May), activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods at middle latitudes, while high latitudes could see isolated minor storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 May 080
  Predicted   03 May-05 May  082/084/086
  90 Day Mean        02 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 May  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  020/035-020/035-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%30%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%

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