Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 30 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1073 (N13E21),
1074 (N17W72), and 1075 (S20W16) have remained stable with no
significant change. No flares were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicate the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream
around 30/1530Z. The solar wind speed increased to an average of
500 km/s with the IMF Bz starting a southward trend averaging around
-8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with possible isolated
minor storm conditions, for the next two days (31 May-01 June) due
to the continued influence from the coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (02 June).
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 073 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 074/073/072 90 Day Mean 30 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 015/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 015/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 015/025-010/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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