Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 10 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of 3
C-class events, as well as numerous B-class events. Region 1045
(N22W39) produced the largest event of the day, a C3.7 flare at
10/1514Z, but is beginning to show signs of decay. Region 1046
(N24E28) and Region 1047 (S18E43) remain stable and quiet. There is
a recurrent, southern hemisphere coronal hole near the center disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. However, there is a chance for an isolated
M-class flare for the next 3 days (11-13 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (11 February). An increase to
unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions is expected on
day 2 (12 February), and unsettled conditions are expected on day 3
(13 February). The activity is forecast as a response to CME
activity on 6 February.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 091 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 090/090/092 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 010/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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