Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1040 (N28W30) has been stable and is classified as
a Eki-beta group with 24 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (15-17 January).
There is a slight chance that Region 1040 will produce an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next two days (15-16
January) .On day three (17 January), quiet to unsettled levels are
expected with the arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 090 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 089/087/085 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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