Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 09 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W26)
produced a M1/Sn event at 08/2123Z. This region has shown a slight
decay today but continues to maintain its magnetic beta-gamma-delta
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for a X-class event from Region
1045.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for the
next three days (10-12 February). Activity is forecast due to the
recent CME activity from Region 1045. Late on 11 February into 12
February there is a slight chance for isolated periods of minor
levels due to the full halo CME observed on 06 February.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 091 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008/009-010/011-012/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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