Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 20 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1041 (S25E77)
produced four M-class flares during the past 24 hours, as well as
numerous C-class flares. The largest of these was an M3.4/Sf at
20/1755Z. Region 1041 was classified as a Cso-beta group with six
spots, as it rotated on to the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Occasional M-class flares are likely. Frequent C-class
flares are expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with isolated minor storm
conditions at high latitudes. Solar wind observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicated the onset of a co-rotating interaction region
around 20/0900Z. Solar wind velocity increased from 300 km/s to a
max of 525 km/s at 20/1834 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) activity showed an enhancement of total field of 19 nT, and
the southern component of the IMF ranged between +15 nT and -17 nT.
Density reached 48 p/cc at 20/1546Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (21-23 January).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 082 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 083/084/085 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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