Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A single B-class flare was
observed on the west limb near old Region 1045 (N23, L=256). Regions
1046 (N22W49) and 1048 (N21E34) continued to gradually decay and
simplify. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1048.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred until 16/0300Z, then decreased to quiet to unsettled
levels. A further decrease to quiet levels occurred after 16/1200Z.
The active levels were due to periods of sustained southward IMF Bz
(minimum -11 nT at 15/2124Z) combined with enhanced IMF Bt (maximum
11 nT at 15/2102Z) associated with a CME passage. Solar wind
velocities varied from 254 - 366 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels during days 1 - 3 (17 - 19 February).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 087 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 086/084/084 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 008/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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